NEW POLL SHOWS GOP ON THE MARCH – AT 7:19 P.M. ET:  A new Fox poll shows the extent of Republican dominance in the current campaign, at least so far:

Florida GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio has jumped to a 16-point lead over independent Charlie Crist, according to the latest Fox News poll, as Republicans make gains across the country on dissatisfaction with President Obama's agenda.

In the first round of Fox News battleground surveys for the 2010 election, Republican candidates for Senate and governor in Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio and California all kick off the election season in contention or ahead.

In each of the states, large numbers of voters believe that the Obama agenda is hurting their local economy.

The surveys covered 1,000 likely voters in each state and were conducted by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News on Sept. 11.

Polls of likely voters are the ones we like.  It's pretty clear from this and other polls that Rubio is making great strides in Florida, and that former Republican and current Governor Charlie Crist's gambit, becoming an independent, isn't paying off.

As for other states, I think Pennsylvania looks solid:

Opposition to the policies of the Obama administration is helping Republican Pat Toomey gain an edge in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll.

Toomey drew 47 percent support among likely voters, compared to 41 percent for Democrat Joe Sestak in the race to replace Sen. Arlen Specter. Eleven percent were undecided.

And Ohio, often seen as a national indicator, also brings smiles:

Republicans hold the advantage so far in the battleground state of Ohio, a new Fox News poll finds.

Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman held a 7-point lead over Democrat Lee Fisher among likely voters -- 48 to 41 percent. Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland trails GOP challenger John Kasich by 5 points -- 48 to 43 percent.

We should note that both the Florida and Ohio Senate seats are currently Republican, so the GOP is looking simply to avoid losses in those states.

The Pennsylvania seat, if Toomey takes it, would be a turnover.

California and Nevada are critical to the GOP's chances of taking the Senate.  The Senate seats are both held by Democrats.  Nevada is a case where the Republicans may have blown a superb chance by nominating a less-than-steller candidate in Sharron Angle.  Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, is fighting for his life and was considered a goner not many months ago.  He's made the race even because of Angle's blunders.

California would be a superb pickup for the GOP, as it would retire intellectually limited Senator Barbara Boxer.  Her GOP opponent, Carly Fiorina, is competitive in an overwhelmingly Democratic state:

Sen. Barbara Boxer is in a statistical dead heat with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, while Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman holds a 6-point lead over Democrat Jerry Brown, a new Fox News poll finds.

COMMENT:  We are racing toward election day, now seven short weeks away.  As in war, the victory may well go to the side that makes the fewest mistakes.  There'll be more and more polls examining the races we've just covered, and we'll report them.

September 14, 2010